Saturday, August 08, 2009

Grim Reality

A far better and more accurate method of determining unemployment is something called the employment-to-population ratio. In this case, "population" means the number of eligible workers in the labor force, not the total population of the nation.

The latest drop in the unemployment rate [from 9.5 to 9.4 percent] was a surprise, but it was all due to the slide in the labor force. More people have given up looking for work. So, they're no longer counted as part of the labor force and therefore there are both fewer workers and - surprise! - less unemployment.

The employment-to-population ratio gives a more accurate picture of the slack in the labor market and the reality hidden in the latest report was that this metric slid to a 25-year low of 59.4% from 59.5% in June and 61.0% at the turn of the year.

Chart source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics

The total labor force for the United States which is described as healthy, able-bodied individuals between the ages of 18 and 65 - in 2004 - was 151,475,000. It has no doubt grown a bit since then, but if only 59.4% of that force is working today, that means about 61,500,000 people are not.

Yes, there are many in the 18-65 age group that are not working by choice: College students, Stay-At-Home Moms, Slackers, Welfare bums, you get the idea. But 61,000,000 of us?

Consider this... a further drop of 9.5% will mean that half of the United States labor force will be out of work, or 76 million people, all of them needing food, energy, shelter.

Shocking beyond comprehension... But the numbers are there... For those who wish to look.

Do you still think this federal government - the people who have been offshoring our jobs and factories for years - is being honest about all this with their 9.4% figure?

Yes, we are in serious trouble, more than most of us can begin to understand.

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