Space Shuttle Replacement

What is going to replace our present space shuttle fleet?

At one time, the vaunted X-33, a subscale technology demonstrator prototype, was the leading candidate for the job.

Unfortunately, NASA truly fumbled the ball when they awarded the entire contract for a replacement shuttle to one lone provider (Lockheed Martin) back in 1996.

That contract was based on a "cost plus" system, wherein the contractor is compensated for the costs of the project, plus they also receive an additional percentage of the gross sales price, or their profit. The higher the costs, the bigger the "profits".

This - of course - absolutely guaranteed gigantic cost overruns which ultimately killed the X-33.

So, NASA galloped off in a new direction, this time betting on the Ares rocket and Orion crew capsule as a shuttle replacement.


Unfortunately, the Ares and the Orion vehicle are hardly more than a revamped version of the Apollo being developed as a vehicle with which to return to the moon some fine day.

Since the Ares/Orion vehicle has no re-usable components, every launch would require a brand-new spacecraft, all portions of which would be lost in the process of completing the mission.

The space shuttle was designed to eliminate this throw-away concept with a fleet of re-usable vehicles. The X-33 was also meant to be reused over and over. But - thanks to NASA's one contractor approach and Lockheed-Martin - the cost overruns for the X-33 killed the project.

This has forced NASA to return to a decades-old technology to remain at least somewhat viable as a space agency, thus the push to sell the Ares/Orion as a shuttle replacement, which it is not.

Now...

US President-elect Barack Obama's NASA transition team is asking US space agency officials to quantify how much money could be saved by canceling the Ares 1 rocket and scaling back the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle next year. ... The questionnaire, 'NASA Presidential Transition Team Requests for Information,' asks agency officials to provide the latest information on Ares 1, Orion and the planned Ares 5 heavy-lift cargo launcher, and to calculate the near-term close-out costs and longer-term savings associated with canceling those programs.

So what will replace the space shuttle? At this point in time, it looks like nothing, particularly since Obama doesn't give a tinker's damn about NASA or our space effort.

NASA may soon be joining the Do-do.
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